Ed. Note: This article first appeared in CNBC
Gold may be struggling to return to its year to date highs, but one trader says it’s time for investors to get back into the once-hot trade.
On Friday, the yellow metal traded at its lowest level in more than a week, and remains below its 2016 high. However, it finished the first quarter up by more than 8 percent, its best quarterly showing in a year.
Todd Colvin of Ambrosino Brothers says that macro concerns are keeping him a “gold buyer and holder,” including a Federal Reserve embarking on a campaign to tighten monetary policy.
“It’s not just U.S. growth, it’s Fed policy, it’s U.S. fiscal policy, it’s European elections,” he said this week on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”Colvin added that there are “a lot of things out there that are going to keep gold bid until we get [a more stable macroeconomic outlook].”
Colvin is especially focused on the Federal Reserve’s actions for the rest of the year. While the Fed has declared that up to three rate hikes are possible this year, Colvin thinks the Fed is actually facing a lot of market uncertainty that they may not be prepared for.
“I think the Fed right now is still seeing the economic and policy as glass half full without any real evidence,” explained the trader. “They need to get those hard data evidence numbers in, and they need to get through some of these cloudy events coming up like the French elections and more FOMC meetings in order to see where policy is really going to go.”
If the Fed hikes fewer times than expected, that would be a bullish catalyst for gold, since the metal generally moves inversely to interest rates.
Meanwhile, the metal’s strong Q1 performance bodes well for the upcoming quarter: Since 1990, gold has gained at least 6 percent in the first quarter of the year on 6 occasions, according to Kensho data. In the following quarter of those years, bullion trended higher 83 percent of the time, with a median return of 3.30 percent.
Should stocks run into trouble, gold’s safe-haven appeal could give it another reason to rally.
“Gold is a safe place to go,” Colvin said.
Posted by: The Trust Advisor